tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292 2h 18m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 01m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic 2h 16m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 5h 55m 98% 73%
JetBlueDetails → TVC 11:41 → BOS 14:01B6 1264 2h 07m Boston BOS 16:08 → PHL 17:52B6 2459 6h 11m 92% 65%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet 1h 45m Chicago ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:52UA 2430 5h 37m 93% 53%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 1h 27m Denver DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510 8h 02m 91% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 5h 21m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON