Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3015 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 3015 TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1148 TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3015 Delta Flight history →	TYS 05:40	ATL 06:40	6%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 1743 Delta Flight history →	TYS 11:57	ATL 12:59	11%	3%	0.9%	92%
DL 1817 Delta	TYS 10:31	ATL 11:33	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3042 Delta Flight history →	TYS 19:49	ATL 20:59	16%	4%	1.0%	82%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	TYS 19:38	ATL 20:46	17%	4%	1.0%	71%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	TYS 15:54	ATL 16:53	17%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 5317 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 07:35	ATL 08:46	15%	9%	1.7%	85%
DL 5279 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 08:35	ATL 09:44	26%	16%	0.9%	74%
DL 4724 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 13:59	ATL 15:08	28%	13%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON