tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4214 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4214 Southwest TYS 06:25 BNA 06:33 4% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1760 Southwest TYS 19:40 BNA 19:48 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 01m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 44m 91% 85%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → BNA 09:44AA 3328 5h 44m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA 1h 39m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 5h 50m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 48m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 4h 55m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → BNA 13:49AA 538 5h 53m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 4h 29m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:02 → LGA 13:07DL 5113 · flown by Endeavor 48m New York LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748 5h 29m 63% 48%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277 5h 09m 67% 45%
AmericanDetails → TYS 17:41 → DFW 19:16AA 2550 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 5h 29m 64% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON