Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4215 at 07:15, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4215 Southwest	TYS 07:15	BWI 09:15	5%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 07m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 26m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	3h 55m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	7h 19m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 00m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 32m	83%	75%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	55m Charlotte	CLT 07:18 → BWI 08:52AA 1216	3h 52m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	3h 56m	90%	73%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733	4h 13m	89%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318	4h 09m	69%	43%
American Details →	TYS 16:47 → CLT 17:59AA 5641 · flown by PSA	50m Charlotte	CLT 18:49 → BWI 20:27AA 2855	3h 40m	60%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON