Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 914 at 17:55, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 914 Southwest	TYS 17:55	DAL 19:17	26%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 36m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 09:29 → ATL 10:33DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 34m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	TYS 08:01 → ATL 09:13DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	4h 23m	90%	72%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 57m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON