Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5149 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5149 TYS 07:39 → DCA 09:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OH 5224 TYS 18:18 → DCA 20:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5149 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:39	DCA 09:29	14%	7%	1.6%	82%
OH 5109 PSA	TYS 11:02	DCA 12:44	18%	7%	1.7%	no record
OH 5224 PSA	TYS 18:18	DCA 20:00	29%	13%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON