Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1256 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1256 TYS 08:48 → DEN 10:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1965 TYS 16:15 → DEN 17:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1256 United Flight history →	TYS 08:48	DEN 10:12	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
G4 3020 Allegiant	TYS 06:29	DEN 07:46	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2411 United	TYS 16:57	DEN 18:28	29%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1965 Southwest	TYS 16:15	DEN 17:29	30%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON