Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 994 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2550 TYS 17:41 → DFW 19:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	9%	4%	1.4%	90%
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	15%	8%	2.0%	77%
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	20%	8%	1.3%	79%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	TYS 13:48	DFW 15:20	26%	7%	1.2%	76%
OH 5309 PSA	TYS 20:04	DFW 21:32	28%	9%	2.5%	no record
AA 2550 American Flight history →	TYS 17:41	DFW 19:16	35%	8%	1.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON