tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 49m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 07:59 → EWR 09:50AA 1707 4h 50m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Dulles IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 4h 06m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 7h 26m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 52m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → EWR 12:47DL 2895 6h 02m 88% 75%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 4h 46m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 41m 83% 73%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:35 → ATL 09:44DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 6h 49m 93% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON