Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, G4 1414 at 13:37, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G4 1414 TYS 13:37 → IAD 15:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


G4 1414 Allegiant	TYS 13:37	IAD 15:14	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4311 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 05:45	IAD 07:30	9%	5%	0.0%	91%
UA 4325 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:00	IAD 11:45	16%	9%	1.4%	84%
UA 4848 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 13:35	IAD 15:20	19%	8%	1.4%	81%
UA 6297 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 19:19	IAD 21:03	21%	12%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON