tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4046 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TYS 15:25 IAH 16:50 22% 11% 0.0% 78%
UA 6298 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TYS 07:15 IAH 08:40 27% 6% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 29m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 07:46 → IAH 09:22DL 8839 4h 42m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 10m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524 6h 13m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 58m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → TYS 08:48 → DEN 10:12UA 1256 1h 22m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 21m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 1h 17m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 6h 21m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:25AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:22 → IAH 14:05AA 398 6h 09m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 5h 59m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON