Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 747 at 12:45, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 747 Southwest	TYS 12:45	MCO 14:32	17%	7%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	4h 16m	97%	86%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379	5h 23m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	6h 55m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 25m	94%	76%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:54 → MCO 11:34AA 936	6h 34m	97%	76%
American Details →	TYS 07:39 → DCA 09:29AA 5149 · flown by PSA	1h 31m Washington	DCA 11:00 → MCO 13:35AA 1153	5h 56m	91%	74%
American Details →	TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA	48m Philadelphia	PHL 08:44 → MCO 11:16AA 2084	5h 16m	89%	74%
American Details →	TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:38 → MCO 12:17AA 2136	6h 40m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 07:15 → IAH 08:40UA 6298 · flown by Mesa	50m Houston	IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310	5h 45m	63%	51%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 18:36 → MCO 21:14DL 1274	5h 15m	62%	44%
American Details →	TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont	57m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	4h 12m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON