tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3079 at 06:49, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3079 American TYS 06:49 MIA 09:06 14% 7% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 17m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 50m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 7h 18m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 38m Charlotte CLT 09:01 → MIA 11:02AA 3184 6h 02m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → TYS 19:38 → ATL 20:46DL 2571 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 5h 17m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 49m Minneapolis MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793 6h 56m 86% 67%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 32m 93% 66%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 05m 98% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068 4h 43m 71% 42%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont 1h 16m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 6h 15m 75% 42%
AmericanDetails → TYS 13:48 → DFW 15:20AA 2544 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:14 → MIA 20:15AA 942 6h 27m 70% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON