tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5523 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record TYS 06:45 MSP 08:18 8% 6% 0.8% 92%
DL 4803 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record TYS 18:42 MSP 20:17 39% 16% 0.0% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 38m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 20m Dulles IAD 08:50 → MSP 10:41UA 2604 5h 56m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:02 → MSP 12:55DL 9961 6h 40m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 07:50 → MSP 09:32AA 2972 5h 32m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:00 → LGA 08:03DL 5116 · flown by Endeavor 3h 07m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 8h 10m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 15m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 5h 09m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → TYS 11:03 → CLT 12:24AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140 6h 56m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 52m Detroit DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303 4h 35m 61% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON