Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1553 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–51%.

Safest bet that day UA 1553 TYS 05:57 → ORD 06:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4105 TYS 16:55 → ORD 18:00 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1553 United	TYS 05:57	ORD 06:53	7%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3716 Envoy	TYS 07:59	ORD 08:55	21%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 1577 United	TYS 10:38	ORD 11:34	24%	10%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	TYS 11:36	ORD 12:32	31%	7%	1.6%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	TYS 20:16	ORD 21:12	46%	18%	4.6%	no record
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:09	ORD 19:10	49%	20%	4.0%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	TYS 16:55	ORD 18:00	51%	16%	3.4%	no record
UA 4584 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:18	ORD 11:23	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON