Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5620 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5620 TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OH 5165 TYS 16:41 → PHL 18:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5620 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 06:00	PHL 07:56	8%	6%	1.5%	86%
PT 6079 Piedmont	TYS 12:37	PHL 14:38	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
PT 5935 Piedmont	TYS 18:21	PHL 20:32	22%	9%	1.6%	no record
OH 5165 PSA	TYS 16:41	PHL 18:52	23%	10%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON