tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 5h 47m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 45m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 6h 23m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185 1h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885 5h 18m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → BOS 23:28DL 300 7h 43m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518 7h 15m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 39m Miami MIA 10:25 → BOS 13:46AA 2134 6h 46m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → BOS 14:28AA 3102 6h 58m 89% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → BOS 23:21AA 1268 6h 48m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON