Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1260 at 11:35, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1260 Southwest	VPS 11:35	BWI 15:09	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 01m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 32m	96%	78%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733	4h 55m	93%	74%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → BWI 15:18AA 2669	7h 48m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → BWI 18:46DL 1267	6h 31m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 41m	95%	62%
American Details →	VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07AA 5201 · flown by PSA	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318	4h 52m	90%	54%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251	7h 10m	85%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:25 → BWI 19:45AA 2805	6h 27m	74%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON