Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2185 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2185 VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5201 VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2185 American Flight history →	VPS 07:14	CLT 09:57	12%	4%	1.8%	88%
OH 5069 PSA	VPS 12:55	CLT 15:40	23%	6%	2.3%	no record
OH 5077 PSA	VPS 16:51	CLT 19:36	27%	8%	2.9%	no record
AA 5201 American flown by PSA Flight history →	VPS 18:22	CLT 21:07	28%	8%	3.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON