Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 2009 Allegiant	VPS 14:42	CVG 17:41	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
G4 396 Allegiant	VPS 20:00	CVG 22:58	28%	9%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160	4h 28m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149	4h 22m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	4h 50m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	4h 26m	97%	75%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:55 → CVG 14:13AA 3305	6h 43m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	5h 16m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	VPS 19:32 → ATL 21:59DL 2803	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	4h 07m	85%	67%
American Details →	VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07AA 5201 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 22:30 → CVG 23:58AA 626	4h 36m	86%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON