tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 5h 20m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 5h 00m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 6h 08m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766 7h 04m 91% 67%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:31 → JFK 13:22AA 374 5h 08m 93% 65%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 5h 44m 90% 65%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 36m Miami MIA 10:22 → JFK 13:20AA 2062 6h 20m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578 7h 42m 89% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON