tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 6h 29m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 39m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 5h 34m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Miami MIA 09:56 → LGA 12:57AA 2424 5h 57m 92% 68%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 13:21 → LGA 15:24AA 2927 7h 10m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → LGA 15:14AA 2922 7h 44m 95% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON