Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4301 at 06:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4301 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	VPS 06:00	MIA 08:46	12%	5%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 07m	98%	70%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 57m	90%	59%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 34m	97%	58%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 14m	95%	57%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → MIA 14:23AA 1454	6h 53m	95%	54%
Delta Details →	VPS 19:32 → ATL 21:59DL 2803	54m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	4h 23m	77%	53%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22DL 719	6h 07m	99%	52%
American Details →	VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07AA 5201 · flown by PSA	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	5h 26m	90%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON