Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 50m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	5h 30m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 45m	97%	78%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671	5h 45m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981	6h 01m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	6h 53m	96%	69%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:06 → MSP 14:42AA 1668	8h 12m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	VPS 12:00 → LGA 15:45DL 4735 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m New York	LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:00DL 2313	8h 00m	92%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07AA 5201 · flown by PSA	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:02 → MSP 23:41AA 2176	5h 19m	69%	45%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	5h 48m	73%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON