tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 5h 20m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 05m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → ORD 12:37AA 1251 6h 07m 94% 65%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 47m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 4h 10m 77% 64%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → ORD 14:27DL 1477 5h 06m 95% 62%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 57m 98% 57%
AmericanDetails → VPS 18:22 → CLT 21:07AA 5201 · flown by PSA 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 22:41 → ORD 23:44AA 627 5h 22m 90% 52%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 8h 06m 95% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON