tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4042 at 15:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4042 Southwest VPS 15:20 STL 17:16 18% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 17m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 45m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 38m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:57AA 2185 1h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 4h 51m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 49m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 3h 43m 79% 68%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Miami MIA 11:17 → STL 13:14AA 477 7h 14m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 5h 19m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:32 → ATL 21:59DL 2803 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 4h 21m 85% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON