Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2196 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2196 DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4556 DCA 20:10 → DAL 22:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest	DCA 06:10	DAL 08:27	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 380 Southwest	BWI 06:22	DAL 08:42	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:26	5%	4%	1.5%	90%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 07:00	DFW 09:26	6%	4%	1.3%	90%
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 09:10	DAL 11:31	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	7%	4%	1.1%	84%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	8%	4%	1.1%	85%
UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	8%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 09:57	DFW 12:22	12%	5%	1.1%	90%
WN 290 Southwest	DCA 11:00	DAL 13:19	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	15%	4%	1.1%	85%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	15%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 12:02	DFW 14:26	17%	6%	1.1%	76%
WN 2330 Southwest	BWI 13:40	DAL 16:01	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:57	DFW 14:26	18%	7%	1.0%	72%
WN 1894 Southwest	DCA 13:00	DAL 15:18	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	19%	7%	1.1%	78%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:21	DFW 14:48	22%	9%	1.3%	70%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	23%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	23%	8%	1.2%	82%
WN 989 Southwest	BWI 15:30	DAL 17:51	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 15:15	DFW 17:34	24%	7%	1.0%	83%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:18	DFW 15:48	25%	11%	1.0%	68%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	IAD 19:35	DFW 21:54	25%	8%	1.1%	70%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	29%	11%	1.8%	61%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	30%	11%	1.5%	65%
WN 991 Southwest	BWI 20:38	DAL 23:00	31%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 986 Southwest	BWI 19:05	DAL 21:26	32%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 2669 American	BWI 16:18	DFW 18:47	33%	9%	1.3%	no record
WN 665 Southwest	DCA 17:35	DAL 19:54	35%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 1213 American Flight history →	BWI 19:11	DFW 21:40	37%	11%	1.5%	61%
WN 4556 Southwest	DCA 20:10	DAL 22:30	38%	13%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	4h 53m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON