Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4657 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4657 DCA 06:55 → HOU 09:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1645 DCA 20:25 → HOU 22:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4657 Southwest	DCA 06:55	HOU 09:16	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3129 Southwest	BWI 06:25	HOU 08:49	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	11%	4%	0.9%	91%
UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 06:00	IAH 08:16	12%	4%	0.8%	93%
WN 1680 Southwest	BWI 08:05	HOU 10:29	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:58	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:52	IAH 15:11	14%	6%	0.8%	91%
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:11	IAH 08:28	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
YV 4004 Mesa	DCA 14:45	IAH 17:34	15%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 1911 United	BWI 15:01	IAH 17:41	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:06	IAH 17:34	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:48	IAH 16:11	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:25	21%	9%	0.9%	66%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	21%	9%	1.2%	73%
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:36	IAH 00:50	22%	7%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
WN 1494 Southwest	DCA 14:05	HOU 16:27	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	24%	8%	0.8%	72%
WN 1040 Southwest	BWI 13:37	HOU 16:04	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:43	IAH 23:07	28%	13%	2.4%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	BWI 18:05	HOU 20:34	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	32%	14%	1.8%	61%
WN 1133 Southwest	BWI 20:11	HOU 22:42	34%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1645 Southwest	DCA 20:25	HOU 22:49	34%	11%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	4h 43m	81%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON