Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 17:40 → FLL 20:23 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	6%	3%	1.1%	93%
WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:16	FLL 08:56	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:44	7%	4%	1.1%	96%
WN 3616 Southwest	BWI 06:10	MIA 08:58	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	10%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	13%	4%	0.9%	87%
UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	14%	5%	4.3%	87%
UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:20	FLL 11:07	19%	5%	2.1%	89%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	20%	4%	1.8%	84%
WN 3506 Southwest	BWI 08:20	FLL 11:10	21%	4%	3.4%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 07:58	FLL 10:45	21%	6%	2.3%	89%worse than usual
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:55	MIA 12:39	22%	5%	4.0%	93%worse than usual
WN 945 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:05	FLL 14:46	24%	5%	1.0%	82%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	25%	7%	2.9%	81%
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 14:50	FLL 17:41	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
WN 3648 Southwest	DCA 16:00	FLL 18:52	30%	10%	1.2%	no record
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:47	MIA 13:43	31%	11%	8.3%	67%
WN 1908 Southwest	BWI 11:40	MIA 14:28	33%	7%	5.8%	no record
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	33%	8%	4.8%	76%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	33%	8%	4.5%	80%worse than usual
WN 2290 Southwest	BWI 20:47	FLL 23:24	34%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	34%	11%	2.4%	59%
AA 2214 American	DCA 21:12	MIA 23:58	35%	13%	1.3%	no record
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	37%	15%	1.6%	57%
WN 437 Southwest	BWI 20:35	MIA 23:14	38%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:38	FLL 19:26	39%	16%	1.8%	61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:03	FLL 21:51	40%	18%	1.9%	56%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:57	MIA 16:49	40%	13%	3.9%	62%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	40%	17%	2.4%	67%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:35	MIA 20:31	41%	15%	1.8%	no record
AA 582 American	DCA 19:05	MIA 21:48	43%	16%	1.6%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 15:09	MIA 18:01	45%	17%	2.9%	no record
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:03	MIA 21:39	48%	14%	1.5%	no record
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	50%	18%	2.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON