Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3871 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5233 XNA 18:18 → CLT 21:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	11%	5%	1.8%	91%
OH 5197 PSA	XNA 05:12	CLT 08:26	14%	6%	2.9%	no record
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 11:00	CLT 14:14	17%	5%	1.4%	86%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 18:18	CLT 21:32	27%	8%	1.7%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON