Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	11%	3%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 06:53 → ORD 08:50AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → DCA 13:41AA 1200	5h 48m	100%	79%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 08:53 → DCA 11:59AA 523	5h 53m	92%	79%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	3h 34m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 33m	100%	77%
United Details →	XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → DCA 13:53UA 202	5h 31m	93%	75%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399	7h 27m	97%	74%
American Details →	XNA 09:18 → LGA 13:26AA 4591 · flown by Republic	3h 47m New York	LGA 17:13 → DCA 18:44AA 4736 · flown by Republic	8h 26m	100%	73%
American Details →	XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 01m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 36m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399	5h 14m	62%	48%
American Details →	XNA 18:18 → CLT 21:32AA 5233 · flown by PSA	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	4h 35m	66%	43%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 53m	59%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON