Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5326 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–42%.

Safest bet that day OO 5326 XNA 05:47 → DEN 06:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5694 XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5326 SkyWest	XNA 05:47	DEN 06:47	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 5812 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 13:28	DEN 14:48	18%	8%	0.7%	92%
UA 2383 United	XNA 09:10	DEN 10:12	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 1091 Frontier Flight history →	XNA 19:16	DEN 20:26	36%	9%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
UA 5694 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:06	DEN 18:22	42%	12%	0.9%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON