Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3603 at 10:32 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–43%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3603 XNA 10:32 → DFW 11:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2150 XNA 18:26 → DFW 19:51 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:32	DFW 11:57	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 3614 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:00	DFW 06:20	16%	6%	1.8%	87%
MQ 4111 Envoy	XNA 09:15	DFW 10:40	17%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:30	DFW 15:55	20%	6%	0.9%	85%
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	20%	6%	1.5%	75%
AA 1700 American Flight history →	XNA 07:58	DFW 09:22	21%	8%	1.7%	82%
AA 2025 American	XNA 12:15	DFW 13:36	25%	10%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3605 Envoy	XNA 20:04	DFW 21:29	25%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 1812 American	XNA 16:04	DFW 17:27	39%	15%	1.5%	no record
AA 2150 American	XNA 18:26	DFW 19:51	43%	15%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON