Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:50, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:50	DTW 21:00	23%	7%	1.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 07:07 → ATL 10:06DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031	7h 48m	98%	79%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:06AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 00m	94%	79%
American Details →	XNA 09:09 → ORD 11:06AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 12:55 → DTW 15:19AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	5h 10m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:53 → ATL 12:52DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 34m	97%	74%
American Details →	XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:33 → DTW 15:24AA 690	6h 26m	100%	73%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 14:15 → DTW 16:07AA 1134	6h 16m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	XNA 11:16 → LGA 15:14DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m New York	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	7h 23m	90%	68%
American Details →	XNA 11:00 → CLT 14:14AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 17:38 → DTW 19:35AA 2066	7h 35m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 18:23 → ORD 20:17UA 4411 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → DTW 23:51UA 349	4h 28m	65%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON