Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 55m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:07 → ATL 10:06DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	59m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 00m	89%	63%
American Details →	XNA 07:00 → DCA 10:39AA 3824 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Washington	DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627	6h 38m	96%	59%
Delta Details →	XNA 11:16 → LGA 15:14DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	2h 36m New York	LGA 17:50 → MIA 21:21DL 1620	9h 05m	97%	58%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MIA 12:45AA 1250	6h 39m	87%	58%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:53 → ATL 12:52DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 02m	96%	57%
American Details →	XNA 09:18 → LGA 13:26AA 4591 · flown by Republic	2h 49m New York	LGA 16:15 → MIA 19:16AA 2525	8h 58m	100%	55%
American Details →	XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → MIA 16:42AA 2461	7h 44m	100%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	5h 11m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON