tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest XNA 11:43 MSP 13:40 17% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest XNA 16:54 MSP 18:51 21% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:32 → PHL 10:34AA 5551 · flown by PSA 2h 25m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → MSP 14:57AA 3294 8h 25m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:55 → SLC 19:52DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847 8h 54m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 30m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140 8h 08m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 6h 27m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 1h 03m Chicago ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 85% 73%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → MSP 14:42AA 1668 6h 44m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 3h 29m Chicago ORD 12:59 → MSP 14:41UA 467 7h 19m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 11:00 → CLT 14:14AA 5327 · flown by PSA 55m Charlotte CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140 5h 59m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON