Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4411 XNA 18:23 → ORD 20:17 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	17%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 06:53	ORD 08:51	17%	6%	1.1%	84%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:09	ORD 11:06	22%	6%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:38	ORD 09:44	23%	7%	2.5%	81%
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:11	ORD 13:06	27%	8%	2.5%	no record
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:58	ORD 17:02	43%	17%	4.4%	no record
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:12	ORD 16:09	45%	16%	2.8%	no record
MQ 3660 Envoy	XNA 19:32	ORD 21:27	48%	20%	2.7%	no record
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:23	ORD 20:17	52%	24%	3.7%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON