Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5551 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 06:32	PHL 10:34	12%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:01	PHL 16:50	30%	9%	1.3%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 07:07 → ATL 10:06DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 17m	92%	78%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → PHL 12:04AA 1725	5h 58m	91%	74%
United Details →	XNA 07:38 → ORD 09:44UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 09m	100%	72%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:45AA 2255	6h 45m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:53 → ATL 12:52DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 11m	93%	70%
American Details →	XNA 06:53 → ORD 08:51AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	7h 01m	100%	70%
American Details →	XNA 11:00 → CLT 14:14AA 5327 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 17:04 → PHL 19:01AA 864	7h 01m	100%	65%
American Details →	XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → PHL 16:28AA 3147	7h 30m	100%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 18:18 → CLT 21:32AA 5233 · flown by PSA	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:24 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827	4h 55m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON