tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4033 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4033 American flown by Envoy Flight history → XNA 08:29 PHX 09:20 14% 4% 0.7% 93%
AA 2800 American XNA 14:27 PHX 15:24 31% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905 7h 16m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:07 → ATL 10:06DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 6h 56m 90% 71%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:05AA 336 7h 07m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:55 → SLC 19:52DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 7h 36m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:42 → PHX 12:10AA 359 6h 57m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:53 → ORD 08:51AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 1h 45m Chicago ORD 10:36 → PHX 12:28AA 2192 7h 35m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:38 → ORD 09:44UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 2h 29m Chicago ORD 12:13 → PHX 13:55UA 2164 8h 17m 100% 64%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy 54m Charlotte CLT 13:06 → PHX 14:39AA 1044 7h 48m 85% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 4h 34m 68% 54%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 47m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 5h 07m 67% 46%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Denver DEN 19:44 → PHX 20:44UA 2655 5h 38m 72% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON