Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 17:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:55	SLC 19:52	19%	7%	1.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 24m Houston	IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:58UA 2242	6h 28m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 30m	92%	72%
American Details →	XNA 08:29 → PHX 09:20AA 4033 · flown by Envoy	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	86%	70%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:43 → SLC 10:37AA 1878	6h 37m	92%	69%
American Details →	XNA 07:58 → DFW 09:22AA 1700	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:32 → SLC 13:24AA 1871	6h 26m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 39m	96%	66%
American Details →	XNA 06:53 → ORD 08:50AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 10:21 → SLC 12:52AA 3258	6h 59m	97%	66%
United Details →	XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	9h 00m	98%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	48m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	66%	53%
Frontier Details →	XNA 19:16 → DEN 20:26F9 1091	1h 47m Denver	DEN 22:13 → SLC 23:44F9 4251	5h 28m	68%	40%
United Details →	XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	4h 50m	58%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON