Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1193 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 1193 ABQ 07:06 → ORD 11:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1219 ABQ 14:02 → ORD 17:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1193 American	ABQ 07:06	ORD 11:04	15%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:44	ORD 11:41	16%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:41	ORD 15:39	29%	13%	1.2%	63%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ABQ 14:02	ORD 17:57	42%	15%	1.2%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON