tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 426 at 14:53, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 426 Alaska ABQ 14:53 PDX 16:52 20% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:19 → DEN 06:44WN 117 1h 46m Denver DEN 08:30 → PDX 10:13WN 3459 5h 54m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 15m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 17m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:08 → SLC 19:57DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 36m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 10:26 → PDX 12:52DL 2766 7h 52m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 09m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 18:45 → PHX 19:09AA 4913 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 21:12 → PDX 00:11 +1AA 561 6h 26m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:51 → DEN 16:19UA 1741 3h 44m Denver DEN 20:03 → PDX 21:50UA 498 7h 59m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON