tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, UA 324 at 13:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 324 United ACV 13:30 LAX 15:29 19% 9% 4.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m San Francisco SFO 09:03 → LAX 10:43UA 1457 4h 43m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 17:53 → LAX 19:28UA 2282 5h 23m 93% 63%
UnitedDetails → ACV 16:01 → SFO 17:21UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:13UA 2409 5h 12m 95% 57%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Denver DEN 17:49 → LAX 19:24UA 1753 6h 54m 81% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 00m 65% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON