Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5186 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–34%.

Safest bet that day OH 5186 ALB 05:15 → DCA 06:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5501 ALB 19:05 → DCA 20:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5186 PSA	ALB 05:15	DCA 06:59	11%	7%	1.7%	no record
YX 4362 Republic	ALB 11:01	DCA 12:45	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
OH 5454 PSA	ALB 14:10	DCA 15:53	27%	12%	1.6%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 19:05	DCA 20:49	34%	16%	1.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON