Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2996 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2996 ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 3809 ALB 17:00 → DTW 19:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2996 Delta Flight history →	ALB 06:05	DTW 07:41	6%	3%	0.7%	99%
DL 3784 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 09:34	DTW 11:23	10%	5%	0.8%	92%
DL 3810 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 13:11	DTW 15:08	13%	8%	0.8%	96%
DL 3809 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 17:00	DTW 19:02	17%	9%	1.1%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON