Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 6258 ALB 12:16 → ORD 13:47 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	13%	6%	1.3%	86%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:52	ORD 11:19	16%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 4256 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:15	ORD 08:44	20%	6%	1.9%	84%
OO 6271 SkyWest	ALB 19:29	ORD 21:07	24%	17%	1.7%	no record
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:09	ORD 18:41	32%	20%	1.2%	65%
UA 463 United	ALB 12:48	ORD 14:16	33%	23%	2.0%	no record
OO 6258 SkyWest	ALB 12:16	ORD 13:47	34%	23%	4.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON