Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5854 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5854 ALB 06:03 → PHL 07:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest PT 6091 ALB 17:26 → PHL 18:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5854 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 06:03	PHL 07:29	10%	4%	1.7%	86%
PT 5844 Piedmont	ALB 08:09	PHL 09:41	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 6015 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 10:49	PHL 12:15	19%	7%	1.5%	83%
AA 5858 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 15:04	PHL 16:27	23%	8%	1.8%	74%
PT 5929 Piedmont	ALB 19:48	PHL 21:17	24%	11%	1.7%	no record
PT 6091 Piedmont	ALB 17:26	PHL 18:52	25%	10%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON