Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959	2h 06m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	10h 24m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 22:00 → DTW 05:09 +1DL 8786	10h 57m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	ANC 17:25 → SEA 21:53DL 928	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	9h 03m	90%	79%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:53AS 98	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 09:50 → DTW 17:02AS 313	10h 41m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → DTW 18:35DL 1476	8h 35m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → DTW 19:04DL 1706	9h 04m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON