Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:35, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:35 → PDX 06:21AS 593	1h 19m Portland	PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05AS 294	10h 30m	98%	78%
United Details →	ANC 00:03 → DEN 07:29UA 1959	2h 38m Denver	DEN 10:07 → EWR 15:42UA 2381	11h 39m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:53AS 98	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 09:57 → EWR 17:57AS 292	11h 36m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON