Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 50 at 16:13, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 50 Alaska	ANC 16:13	HNL 20:14	24%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	12h 04m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:35 → PDX 06:22AS 593	1h 45m Portland	PDX 08:07 → HNL 10:40AS 880	11h 05m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:21 → SEA 06:54AS 98	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 09:11 → HNL 12:03AS 853	11h 42m	99%	56%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:58 → SEA 11:31AS 48	1h 52m Seattle	SEA 13:23 → HNL 16:05AS 121	11h 07m	98%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON